Prospects for North Korea-Japan Relations from Kim Yo-jong’s Statement

Lee Ki-tae

Director, Global Strategy Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification

On February 15, 2024, Kim Yo-jong, a senior North Korean official, announced a conditional willingness for a North Korea-Japan summit, explicitly excluding the issue of Japanese abductions. Furthermore, on March 25, through a statement carried by the Korean Central News Agency, she said that Prime Minister Kishida Fumio had conveyed his intention to meet North Korean leader Kim Jong-un at the earliest convenience via various channels. In addition to this, she stipulated the non-mention of abductions and recognition of North Korea’s nuclear and missile development as the sovereign right for such a summit. Prime Minister Kishida, while acknowledging ongoing vements related to North Korea including contacts between the two  nations, exhibited a cautious stance towards the prospect of a summit.

<Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) / Korean Central Television>

North Korea's revelation of its talks with Japan, as communicated by Kim Yo-jong, strategically aims to enhance its bargaining power in the ongoing dialogues, simultaneously underscoring Japan's strong interest in a bilateral summit. This announcement, however, signals stumbling blocks in the negotiation process, a contrast to the successful diplomacy in 2002 led by Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Then, covert discussions facilitated by Hitoshi Tanaka with a key North Korean aide—referred to as 'Mr. X' and close to Kim Jong-un—culminated in Koizumi's landmark visit to North Korea. The fact that Kim Yo-jong has made such disclosures now hints at North Korea's attempt to assert its position and priorities early in the negotiation process. If talks were advancing smoothly, such a statement would likely not have been necessary, pointing to a tactical approach by North Korea to strengthen its hand in these critical discussions.

What stands at the heart of the stalled North Korea-Japan talks? The abduction of Japanese citizens by North Korea remains a glaring point of contention. From the onset, this issue has set both nations at odds. During the 2002 summit, North Korea admitted abducting 13 of the 17 Japanese nationals, confirming the death of 8 and survival of 5, who were later returned to Japan. Since then, North Korea insists this matter was resolved following the summit, a stance Japan disputes.

Japan refuses to accept the reported deaths of 8 abductees, believing they could still be alive in North Korea. Hence, Japan persists in its demand for a thorough investigation into the abductions, proposing their return as a fundamental condition for any future summit talks with North Korea.

The initiative for a summit regained momentum under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2018, amid a global push towards dialogue with North Korea and following a series of summits involving the US and South Korea. Breaking away from a policy of isolation, Abe, followed by Yoshihide Suga and Fumio Kishida, sought an "unconditional talk" with North Korea.

Since the beginning of 2023, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has escalated Japan's outreach to North Korea with notably more forward-looking communications. On May 27, he expressed a wish for “high-level” talks directly under his auspices to hasten a summit with Kim Jong-un. Following this, The Asahi Shimbun on September 29 reported two secretive interactions between the nations in March and May 2024 within key Southeast Asian cities. Kishida's May commentary, assumedly a nod to these discreet dialogues' positive outcomes, revealed no tangible progress signs. The minister's calls for "high-level prime ministerial talks" essentially hint at the deployment of a special envoy to North Korea, marking the crux of Japan's current diplomatic strategy towards North Korea.

Yet, achieving a North Korea-Japan summit seems fraught with challenges for several reasons. Foremost, the contentious abduction issue remains unresolved, with uncertainty whether North Korea can provide findings that would satisfy the Japanese belief that all abductees, including Megumi Yokota, are alive. Furthermore, reaching a consensus on the extent to which Japan can relax its unilateral sanctions against North Korea in return for addressing the abductee issue proves difficult.

Additionally, tackling North Korea's denuclearization remains a formidable task. The triad of Japan's concerns involves North Korea's nuclear and missile programs and the abductee issue. Despite the abduction matter currently taking center stage in dialogues, as Kim Yo-jong's statements suggest, North Korea seeks Japan's recognition of its nuclear activities as a sovereign right. This contrasts with Kishida who represents Hiroshima and consistently advocates for a nuclear-free world, underscoring a significant discord between the two nations on the issue of North Korea's denuclearization.

Enhanced North Korea-Russia relations pose another hurdle. The ongoing Ukraine conflict and enduring sanctions against North Korea have spotlighted the deepening military and technological cooperation between Pyongyang and Moscow. This growing partnership further complicates Japan's position as a dialogue participant and challenges the feasibility of Kishida's proposition to dispatch a special envoy to North Korea, adding layers of complexity to the already strained negotiations.

Furthermore, domestic politics in Japan significantly influence the feasibility of a North Korea-Japan summit. With Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's popularity at a record low, he views such a summit as crucial for his re-election in the September 2024 LDP leadership election. However, the focus of Japanese politics on reforms, such as addressing illegal funding and LDP factionalism, diminishes the immediate need for a summit. In addition, the decreasing public concern over the abduction issue casts doubt on the summit's potential effectiveness.

For a North Korea-Japan summit to materialize, both nations must find common ground on the abduction issue. Japan may need to adjust expectations regarding abductee returns, and North Korea should admit to past actions, agreeing to repatriate survivors. A compromise, alongside sending Prime Minister Kishida's special envoy to North Korea, could set the stage for Kishida's landmark visit to Pyongyang, potentially heralding a significant diplomatic breakthrough.