Controversy over power succession: it should be viewed with a critical eye, rather than as a topic for gossip

Power succession in North Korea has become a hot issue not only among people on the street, but also among intelligence officials and North Korea experts. Recently, there has been a growing interest on who will succeed Chairman Kim Jong-un. At the center of the debate is whether Pyongyang's three-generation succession – from Kim Il-sung, to Kim Jong-il, to Kim Jong-un - will lead to the fourth generation.

It is ironic that succession is already being discussed for a young leader who is only 39 years old now. This is especially true given that the position of North Korean leader is a de facto lifetime position, with no set five- or ten-year term.

In fact, the debate over succession was ignited largely by Kim Jong-un himself. Out of the blue, he brought his young daughter to a missile launch site on November 18 last year, drawing a lot of attention from all over the world. Her public debut at the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test site, where the eyes of not only North Korean elites and citizens but also the international community were focused, was surely to attract the world’s attention.

The unnecessary controversy was quelled on March 7, when the South Korean National Intelligence Service (NIS) summarized in a report to the National Assembly's intelligence committee that ten-year old Kim Ju-ae's appearance was not directly related to power succession. "Kim Jong-un is still young and healthy, so there is no need to prematurely prepare his successor," said the NIS chief.

Kim Jong-un may have revealed his daughter to the public on the occasion of the Hwasong-17 launch as an attempt to stress to the outside world that North Korea is advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities out of desperation for the survival of its regime and that he is putting his family and the reputation of the regime on the line. Some analysts also argue that it is Pyongyang’s image strategy to deflect away from Kim Jong-un and his family blames and criticism for escalating tensions on the Korean peninsula and the surrounding region with nuclear development and missile launches.

Experts are divided on whether Kim Jong-un has decided to reveal his daughter to the public with a fourth-generation succession in his mind. Some experts argue that Kim Jong-un may use his younger sister and a vice director of the Workers’ Party, Kim Yo-jong, as a stepping stone in power succession, rather than introducing his young children in the front seats of power at this point.

"It is very likely that North Korea makes a “3.5 generation” succession in which Kim Yo-jong is given a certain role before the succession by a fourth generation leader," says Yoo Ho-yeol, professor emeritus at Korea University's School of Unification and Diplomacy. 

There is indeed a sign that North Korea is building a system within the Workers' Party which would allow temporary delegation of Kim Jong-un’s authority to somebody in the event of an emergency.

While Kim Jong-un has generated a lot of buzz with the disclosure of his second daughter, it is impracticable to link it to power succession. Unless a matter of vital importance happens, such as Kim’s sudden health failure, it is premature to start talking about his heir when he hasn't even reached the age of 40 yet.

South Korean and U.S. intelligence officials believe that Kim Jong-un married Ri Sol-ju in 2009, when he was still the heir apparent, and they have one son and two daughters. Kim Ju-ae is known to be their younger daughter.

The intelligence community has a relatively clear idea about Kim Jong-un's children because Lee appeared pregnant in her early public appearances and took a break from public activities for a period of time to give birth each time she had a child. Former National Basketball Association (NBA) player Dennis Rodman also contributed to their knowledge. Upon returning from his trip to Pyongyang, the NBA star player disclosed a piece of information about Kim’s family, “Lee was always talking about her daughter.”

It is unclear why Kim Jong-un has not presented his older daughter or son to the public. Some experts have suggested that the eldest child is sent abroad to study or has a disability that prevents him from appearing in public.

There are also observers who believe that Kim Jong-un may present a child other than Ju-ae as his heir. This is because it takes a considerable period of time for an heir to be nurtured into a successor to the North Korean leadership, and he or she may be studying abroad like Kim Jong-un himself who had attended the International School of Bern in Switzerland during his childhood. In such a case, his or her identity would be thoroughly protected from public exposure.