North Korea's Goal of "Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula":

Unraveling the South Korea-U.S. Alliance

Ryu Hyeon-woo

North Korea's Former Acting Ambassador to Kuwait

• North Korea's consecutive missile provocations
• Kim Jong-un seeks to gain advantages through missile provocations

North Korea's consecutive missile provocations

North Korea has been continuously conducting missile tests this year. Starting from January 1st, they launched an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (ICBM), and recently, they conducted tests of Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles (SLBMs) capable of evading interception, as well as tactical missiles like the North Korean version of the Iskander missile known as "KN-23" and "ATACMS" missile (designated as "KN-24"), Hypersonic Missiles, and cruise missiles, all aimed at South Korea. Additionally, they showcased underwater drones like "Haesil-1" and "Haesil-2," and on May 31st, they attempted to launch a space launch vehicle named "Chollima-1" carrying a reconnaissance satellite called "Manrikyong-1," but the launch failed. Furthermore, they also conducted tests of "Hwasong-17" and "Hwasong-18" intercontinental ballistic missiles with a range of 15,000 km, capable of striking anywhere in the United States.

This year, North Korea has conducted a total of 23 missile launches. Despite the heavy burden on the North Korean economy due to UN sanctions and border closures caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, Kim Jong-un's regime continues to relentlessly fire missiles. The cost of a single missile can range from billions to hundreds of billions of dollars, and it appears that they have spent billions just on missile tests this year. This massive expenditure on foreign currency makes it nearly impossible for North Korea to procure enough food to supply its people, let alone maintain the country's reserves. Despite these challenges, Kim Jong-un seems fixated on reckless and irrational missile provocations, even causing damage to the country's economic foundation. The question remains: what is the reason behind his unwavering pursuit of these missile launches?

Kim Jong-un seeks to gain advantages through missile provocations

North Korea claims that its missile tests are a military response to the joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States. However, this argument lacks credibility since North Korea has conducted missile provocations vigorously even during periods without such exercises. Of course, it is true that the joint military exercises do further provoke North Korea's already sensitive state, leading to diplomatic isolation and international sanctions. Additionally, conducting ballistic missile tests is an essential process for improving their performance and creating fissures within the South Korea-U.S. alliance. Nevertheless, the author believes that there are even more critical reasons behind Kim Jong-un's intentions. Through missile launches, Kim Jong-un aims to solidify internal loyalty among North Korean citizens, leverage nuclear possession for the lifting of North Korea's sanctions, and secure diplomatic leverage against China.

1) Internal Cohesion

North Korea fears internal instability more than external pressure. Kim Jong-un's primary challenge is to prevent wavering public sentiment and solidify internal cohesion. The recent increase in North Korea's missile launches vividly reflects Kim Jong-un's sense of urgency. Since the fourth nuclear test in January 2016, North Korea has faced unprecedented UN sanctions. These sanctions prohibit 95% of exports, including coal and minerals, and since February 2017, North Korean banks have been expelled from SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication), completely cutting off formal foreign banking transactions. By 2019, even maintaining diplomatic missions abroad became difficult, leading to the closure of some embassies due to urgent foreign exchange shortages. The purpose of U.S. sanctions on North Korea was to completely block all financial resources flowing into the country, essentially eliminating the funding sources for its nuclear and missile production. The agendas of the DPRK-USA Summits held in Singapore and Hanoi also revolved around the choices between North Korean denuclearization and the easing of sanctions, indicating the severity of the sanctions. Moreover, the three-year-long COVID-19 situation has acted as a double-edged sword, negatively impacting the lives of North Korean citizens. Since 2020, the closure of the North Korean-China border due to COVID-19 has resulted in the failure to import wheat, sugar, and essential goods from China, leading to the closure of many food factories. In addition, internal controls for COVID-19 prevention have restricted the movement of residents in provinces, cities, and counties. Over the past three years, dissatisfaction and fatigue among residents have worsened. Kim Jong-un's economic strategy announced during the 8th Party Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea (WPK) focused on self-reliance and self-sufficiency. However, given North Korea's limited arable land and dependence on imports for raw materials, self-reliance and self-sufficiency are merely makeshift solutions for its economy. During the Military Parade marking the 75th anniversary of the founding of the WPK, Kim Jong-un expressed gratitude to the people who continue to faithfully support the Party despite their difficult living conditions, even shedding tears as he said, "I'm sorry, thank you." This indicates that Kim Jong-un is facing a critical point in his political crisis and needs to take urgent action. The most effective way to appease public discontent and prevent internal instability is to highlight external enemies and promote unity internally. Therefore, as long as the North Korea sanctions persist, military provocations by North Korea are likely to continue.

2) Lifting North Korea Sanctions Through Nuclear Possession

For over 30 years, North Korea has persistently pursued nuclear weapons despite international isolation and sanctions, demonstrating a strong determination to possess nuclear capabilities. On September 8th, Kim Jong-un publicly stated in a speech that "there is no room for negotiating the abandonment of nuclear weapons, and there is no negotiation or bargain to exchange anything for it." This reflects Kim Jong-un's unwavering commitment to nuclear weapons, which he has vehemently advocated. The essence of denuclearization on the Korean Peninsula is, in fact, nothing more than a pretext for North Korea's pursuit of nuclear weapons. In December 2018, North Korean authorities defined "Korean Peninsula denuclearization" as "eradicating all nuclear threats from external forces targeting the Korean Peninsula, including the US nuclear weapons and nuclear-capable assets in Guam and Japan." This essentially calls for the removal of all US nuclear assets in the region, which includes military bases in China and Russia that counterbalance those countries. In essence, North Korea's denuclearization is merely a pretext to justify its own possession of nuclear weapons. Even in political and academic circles, there are voices suggesting that if North Korea's denuclearization is deemed impossible, then all possibilities, including the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons, nuclear sharing by the US, and South Korea's independent nuclear development, should be considered as the only viable solution to maintain nuclear balance. North Korea currently identifies itself as a "responsible nuclear-possessing state." In September last year, the "Nuclear Weapons Policy Law," which legalizes the use of nuclear weapons, was adopted during the Supreme People's Assembly. This implies that North Korea is no longer afraid of using nuclear weapons. Experts predict that North Korea will conduct its seventh nuclear test to experiment with miniaturized nuclear warheads for tactical purposes. Nuclear attacks that pose a threat to Japan and Guam, where US military bases are located, are expected. Therefore, North Korea needs to conduct the seventh nuclear test to complete its tactical nuclear weapons. Although the timing is the only issue, it is evident that it will happen sooner or later. Even if North Korea conducts its seventh and eighth nuclear tests, it will be difficult for the US to lead additional UN Security Council sanctions under the current situation of US-China-Russia confrontation. Kim Jong-un will accelerate nuclear weapon development through nuclear tests. Not only miniaturized and lightweight tactical nuclear weapons but also intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) capable of carrying nuclear warheads and targeting the entire US will be continuously improved through ongoing experiments. If North Korea reaches a state where nuclear abandonment is impossible, then North Korea-US summits will face an urgent crisis. To prevent the development of ICBMs capable of attacking the US mainland, the US will have no choice but to engage in substantial dialogue with North Korea. Rather than focusing on denuclearization that has already gone too far, the agenda will likely shift to the possibility of North Korea suspending the development of ICBMs in exchange for some easing of North Korea sanctions. If this happens, North Korea will be recognized as a nuclear-possessing state, and the possibility of sanctions relief will become viable.

3) China's Position on North Korea's Missile Provocations

During the UN Security Council meetings on July 13th and June 3rd, condemning North Korea's launches of the solid-fuel ICBM "Hwasong-18" and the reconnaissance satellite "Cheonrima-1," respectively, Zhang Jun, the Chinese Ambassador to the UN, argued that "North Korea faces tremendous security and survival threats due to US pressure" and highlighted the "unprecedented scale" of US joint military exercises. This stance aligns with North Korea's claim that its missile launches are military responses to US-South Korea joint exercises. Strengthening the US-South Korea alliance and US-South Korea-Japan military cooperation increases China's sense of threat and impacts North Korea-China relations. North Korea's criticism of the US-South Korea alliance, joint military exercises, and the presence of US troops in South Korea aligns with China's strategic interests of restraining US expansion in the context of intense US-China power competition. China not only tolerates but also supports North Korea's successive missile launches despite international condemnation and censure.

Peace is guaranteed only through strong power, as history has proven. The Yoon Suk-yeol government's policy of responding to North Korea's nuclear and missile threats with a robust defense centered around a strong US-South Korea alliance is a desirable strategy that aligns with today's reality of North Korea's increasingly overt nuclear and missile threats, in the author's view.