Evaluating North Korea's Military Provocations and Our Strategic Response

 

Park Hwee-rhak

Political Science Professor, at Kookmin University

 

The Growing Danger of a North Korean Nuclear Attack on South Korea

Dr. Siegfried Hecker, who made seven trips to North Korea between 2004 and 2010 and saw their nuclear facilities firsthand, contributed an article to '38 North' on January 1, 2024. In it, he voiced concerns that the Korean Peninsula is in its most perilous state since early June 1950. Hecker's analysis indicates that Kim Jong-un has decided to pursue a path to war, mirroring the actions of his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, in 1950.

North Korea has successfully developed nuclear weapons and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with the capability to strike the U.S. mainland. They seem to be operating under the belief that the U.S. would not honor its nuclear umbrella commitment if its mainland were threatened. Following this line of thought, on April 25, 2022, which is the Korean People's Army Foundation Day, Kim Jong-un initiated a 'second mission.' This move is interpreted as a pivot towards a possible assault on South Korea, based on their assumption that the U.S.'s nuclear deterrent will be effectively neutralized.

North Korea has significantly updated its military strategies and laws regarding nuclear forces in September 2022, enabling Kim Jong-un to use nuclear weapons at will. Furthermore, they've coined the term 'territorial integrity' to describe the role of their nuclear arsenal, signaling a clear intention to use these weapons for potential unification efforts under North Korean control.

Recently, North Korea's blatant nuclear threats have intensified. At the end of 2023, during the Central Committee of the Workers' Party of Korea Plenary Meeting, Kim Jong-un emphasized the need to continue accelerating preparations for a 'major transformation' to subdue the entire territory of South Korea using all physical means and capabilities, including nuclear forces. This statement implies that North Korea, given the chance, intends to attack South Korea with nuclear weapons at the center to achieve unification under its leadership. This is not unfounded, as argued by Dr. Hecker, and the real issue is our lack of concern.

A Call for Reflection on Past Approaches and a Sober Assessment of North Korean Nuclear Threats 

While urgently preparing for North Korea's nuclear capabilities is critical, it's equally important to reflect on previous missteps. The past administration's focus on denuclearization through dialogue, while neglecting to strengthen defenses against North Korea's growing nuclear power, inadvertently allowed them to bolster their capabilities. Had there been a more proactive and firm response to these threats, North Korea might not be as bold in its current nuclear posturing towards South Korea. It raises a question about how to address former officials who still defend these past policies. Relying solely on diplomatic talks without a robust defense strategy is akin to capitulating to a nuclear-armed adversary.

The South Korean public needs to acknowledge the errors of the previous government and realistically grasp the grave nature of North Korea's current nuclear threat. This is a matter of national survival. To prevent history from repeating itself, we must be ready for the worst-case scenario, embracing the principle that true peace can only be maintained through strength, especially in dealings with North Korea. Any perception of weakness on South Korea's part could embolden North Korea to initiate a nuclear strike, aiming to force unification on its own terms.

The Need for Focused Actions by the Government and Military to Counter North Korea's Nuclear Threat

It's imperative for the government to place national security at the forefront, particularly in response to North Korea's nuclear threats. This involves openly evaluating and communicating the reality of these threats, reinforcing the alliance with the United States, and significantly boosting South Korea's defensive capabilities, notably through the 'Kill Chain' system.

Needless to say, the military is at the forefront of responding to North Korea's nuclear threat. Therefore, the Korean military should greatly increase the importance of North Korea's nuclear capabilities in its operations, and all commanders and officers must tirelessly work on understanding the reality of the nuclear threat and developing countermeasures. Continuous enhancement of advanced weapons needed for North Korea's nuclear response, strengthening realistic training, and solid mental preparation for all soldiers are essential.

However, this should not lead us to an excessive fear of North Korea's nuclear capabilities. Practically, it would be challenging for North Korea to deploy these weapons. With the United States as a powerful ally, boasting the world's most formidable military and nuclear force, we are under a protective nuclear umbrella. The U.S. has made it clear that any nuclear aggression from North Korea would be met with decisive retaliation, potentially leading to the collapse of the North Korean regime. Moreover, North Korea would likely face significant hurdles in using nuclear weapons without the approval of key allies like China and Russia, even in the face of reckless behavior.

Now is the time for both our citizens and the military to demonstrate unwavering determination to safeguard our nation's survival, even if it means facing the risk of a nuclear conflict. It's crucial to convey to North Korea that its nuclear threats are ineffective against South Korea. The old adage, 'If you want peace, prepare for war,' has never been more relevant or urgent than in our current situation.