North Korea and Japan's Intentions Regarding Summit Talks:

A Pivotal Moment in Japan-Korean Peninsula Relations

Yoon Suk-jung

Korea National Diplomatic Academy

Relations between North Korea and Japan have remained tense, with ongoing discussions regarding a potential visit by Prime Minister Kishida Fumio and the prospect of summit talks. On February 9th, Prime Minister Kishida expressed Japan's keen interest in advancing summit talks with North Korea, urging significant shifts in approach. In response, on February 15th, Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the WPK in North Korea, suggested the possibility of a future visit by the Prime Minister to Pyongyang if Japan made political decisions to open a new path. However, Kim Yo-jong clarified that her statement reflected her personal opinion. This swift response from North Korea following Prime Minister Kishida Fumio's remarks is noteworthy.

Kim Yo-jong, sister of North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un, arrives at the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Russia's Far East on Sept.13, 2023. [AFP/YONHAP]

Looking back, a significant development occurred in May of last year. On May 27, 2023, Prime Minister Kishida Fumio declared during a 'National Rally Urging for the Resolution of the Abduction Issue' his commitment to high-level consultations, directly aiming for early summit talks with North Korea. In January of this year, Kim Jong-un addressed Prime Minister Kishida Fumio as 'Your Excellency' and sent condolences regarding the earthquake in the Noto Peninsula.

Entering 2024, interactions between the two nations intensified, hinting at a possible visit by Kishida to Pyongyang. Reports from Asahi Shimbun revealed secretive meetings in Southeast Asia between the countries in March and May of the previous year. These interactions have since evolved, suggesting a deepening and more substantive dialogue aimed at bridging differences.

The Japanese government's active pursuit of a summit with North Korea stems from the abduction issue, considered a paramount concern. It's believed that only direct engagement with Kim Jong-un could provide a breakthrough in resolving this longstanding issue, especially as the calls from abduction victims for proactive measures are escalating.

Sakie Yokota, mother of abduction victim Megumi Yokota expressed "North Korea's gesture is unprecedented, and I hope this opens the door to dialogue." As all family members of abduction victims are now elderly, there's a growing sense of urgency that time is running out for resolution. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio is therefore actively seeking direct talks with Kim Jong-un.

The question now becomes: how receptive will North Korea be regarding the abduction issue? In her speech, Kim Yo-jong contended that Japan shouldn't bring up the abduction matter, echoing North Korea's past position that the issue has been resolved. Furthermore, she emphasized, "Japan ought to break the habit of making unfair accusations about our legitimate self-defense measures, such as North Korea's nuclear and missile development."

In response to North Korea's assertion of resolving the abduction issue, Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshimasa Hayashi, countered by affirming Japan's commitment to addressing the abduction, nuclear, and missile concerns outlined in the North Korea-Japan Pyongyang Declaration. With significant disparities in their positions, the likelihood of an immediate North Korea-Japan summit is low.Negotiations regarding the summit agenda between them have commenced, indicating both countries' serious contemplation of a summit. Prime Minister Kishida Fumio will ultimately decide, weighing the diplomatic advantages of a North Korea-Japan summit against the potential ramifications for their relationship.

Japan prioritizes the abduction issue, which North Korea considers resolved. North Korea is well aware of this. Importantly, despite this, North Korea shows interest in improving relations with Japan. Here, the paradox of the abduction issue is at play. The abduction issue is an obstacle in Japan-North Korea relations. 

Despite this, Japan has consistently expressed interest in dialogue with North Korea due to the abduction issue. During annual national rallies under the Abe, Suga, and current Kishida administrations, Japanese prime ministers have stated their willingness to hold summits with Kim Jong-un without preconditions.

Considering the abduction issue's paradox within the US, Japan, South Korea trilateral relationship, we can grasp North Korea's calculations. The Biden administration shows passivity on North Korea, while the Yoon administration prioritizes the US-South Korea alliance and adopts a tough stance on North Korea. Consequently, North Korea might view dialogue with Japan, which consistently expresses readiness for a summit, as a viable option amid these dynamics—a sort of process of elimination.

Situational factors prompt North Korea to pursue dialogue with Japan. Japanese media suggest North Korea aims to disrupt trilateral relations among the US, South Korea, and Japan. Additionally, there's a preventive diplomatic aspect, considering potential US-North Korea negotiations under a returning Trump administration. In anticipation, North Korea may seek to improve relations with Japan to prevent it from hindering US-North Korea talks.

Regardless of North Korea's intentions, the relationship between the Korean Peninsula and Japan is at a turning point. Historically, this isn't the first time North Korea and Japan have engaged. Even during the Cold War, North Korea sought to enhance relations with Japan, engaging in contacts between the two nations. At that time, North Korea aimed to diplomatically isolate South Korea amid regime competition. Therefore, South Korea's normalization of diplomatic relations with Japan during the Cold War served to obstruct Japan's approach to North Korea.

In the post-Cold War era, the Japan-North Korea Pyongyang Declaration saw North Korea seeking political and economic support from Japan to sustain its regime. South Korea viewed Japan as a partner for North Korea's reform. However, North Korea now argues that relations between North and South Korea are about hostile state relations, not national relations.

North Korea's stance presents a challenge to South Korea's policy toward the North. As dialogue between Japan and North Korea intensifies, considerations also expand to South Korea's stance on North Korea and North Korea-Japan relations. With the belief that Korean Peninsula-Japan relations are evolving, the Korean government must contemplate comprehensive responses.