The Major Shift in Inter-Korean Relations and Domestic and
International Responses in 2024
Park Young-ho
was a senior fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification and is director of the Center for Foreign, Security and Unification Affairs at the Next Generation’s Future Strategy Institute.
Shift in North Korea's Approach to Unification:
Proclamation of 'Two Hostile States'
Kim Jong-un has revised his approach toward South Korea, declaring South Korea as the 'foremost enemy' and announcing the coexistence of 'two states' on the Korean Peninsula. He has stated that unification under North Korea's previous policy is unattainable, adding a condition that unification could occur 'in the event of war,' but clearly supporting a stance of 'unification through force.'
After the socialist bloc's collapse, North Korea revised its unification policy. Kim Il-sung introduced 'North Korean-style federalism,' acknowledging diverse systems and ideologies, essentially aiming for 'practically two states.' This strategy sought to preserve the North Korean regime while nominally advancing unification.
This stance against system unification persisted through Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un. Asserting that system confrontation would lead to war, they called for unification through the coexistence of both regimes, emphasizing the coexistence of two systems. Alongside, they escalated nuclear and missile development and used inter-Korean relations to mobilize resources.
Kim Jong-un's achievements in nuclear and missile development have had adverse effects. Relations with South Korea and the U.S. did not progress as hoped, and external economic resources were cut off, perpetuating economic struggles. Despite stringent controls on information, South Korean culture silently penetrated North Korea. Consequently, at the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party of Korea in January 2021, Kim Jong-un declared a bleak outlook for improving inter-Korean relations, proclaiming the dream of unification as far removed and signaling a readiness to employ nuclear weapons beyond mere defense under the 'principle of confrontational struggle.' This led to the emergence of a 'New Cold War' with North Korea aligning with China and Russia. Kim Jong-un's ultimate choice was the 'two-state theory,' aimed at maintaining the Democratic People's Republic of Korea as an independent socialist nation coexisting with South Korea.
Kim Jong-un's 'War Endurance' Doctrine
Kim Jong-un's pivot in policy towards South Korea signifies a shift in national security posture. Despite initiatives like the dual-track of economic and nuclear development and a focus on economic construction, clear outcomes beyond nuclear and missile advancements are absent. The decade-old promise of not tightening the people's belts again remains unfulfilled within the confines of the current regime, which internal threats to the hereditary dictatorship challenge. A new security posture is necessary to protect the regime.
Although North Korea remains a totalitarian state, Kim Jong-un felt compelled to justify policy changes, claiming to end "the nearly 80-year history of inter-Korean relations." He argues that despite North Korea's long-standing goodwill, South Korea has pursued policies aimed at the 'collapse' and 'absorption' of the DPRK. Thus, South Korea is not seen as a partner in unification but as a 'belligerent state,' necessitating a comprehensive strategy across military, legal, institutional, and cultural dimensions. This context led to Kim Jong-un's 'War Endurance' doctrine.
Nuclear capabilities cannot substitute for economic development. Fear and oppression can suppress discontent but not eliminate concerns about regime stability. The 'War Endurance' doctrine serves as a strategy to threaten South Korea and lock its people within the regime.
Domestic and International Response Tasks
Firstly, it's essential to firmly balance North Korea's aggressive stance while maintaining a system for managing North Korean threats from a military security standpoint, without overreacting. Kim Jong-un focuses on mobilizing citizens for the ‘20×10 regional development policy’, limiting external influences.
Even with Kim Jong-un proposing the 'two-state theory,' South Korean perceptions of unification have evolved due to vast disparities in national power and cultural development between North and South Korea. South Korea, internationally hailed as a democratic powerhouse, contrasts starkly with North Korea's totalitarian regime and economic struggles. The distinct national and citizen identities of both Koreas demand transformative change within the North, challenging Kim Jong-un's 'two-state theory.' A unification strategy fostering internal change in North Korea is imperative for peaceful coexistence and eventual reunification.
Thirdly, a shift in perception is needed to approach the issue of unification not merely as an ethno-nationalist endeavor but as a matter of long-term national development. With South Korea's population becoming diverse and heading toward a more multiethnic society, the notion of an ethnic community should transcend traditional Korean ethnicity to reflect Korea's global openness and cultural integration capabilities. Therefore, 'ethnicity' must be redefined as encompassing the national identity of Koreans, embodying democratic freedom, and advanced civic political culture. This redefinition paves the way for democratic citizen education aimed at re-establishing perceptions of unification.
Fourthly, the essence of Korean Peninsula unification lies in ensuring the 'dignity, value, and rights to happiness of all individuals.' As a global leader in democracy, South Korea stands as a centrifugal force to hasten change in North Korea. Political leaders must adopt an honest and realistic stance, recognizing that the openness, liberalization, and diversification are prerequisites for a peaceful and democratic unification. Achieving societal consensus on unification and establishing a long-term strategy that transcends political regimes are crucial.
Fifthly, priority should be given to initiating negotiations for a foundational treaty between North and South Korea, aiming to establish a framework for peaceful coexistence. This treaty would set the stage for normalizing inter-state relations between both Koreas and serve as a guiding framework until unification. All interactions must adhere to international laws and norms, with unification pursued as a national goal through the free will of the Korean people.
Sixthly, a diplomatic and security strategy is crucial for integrating North Korea into the international community, despite its desire to remain a socialist state with backing from China and Russia. This approach should enhance ROK-US and ROK-US-Japan cooperation frameworks while establishing a multilateral security system to address military threats from North Korea and other authoritarian entities.
Seventhly, South Korea needs a new unification diplomacy strategy to counterbalance the excessive influence of China and Russia on the Korean Peninsula. South Korea must significantly expand its national resources to play a role at the G8 level in areas such as freedom, democracy, human rights, international security and peace, economic prosperity, and culture.
Encouraging normalization of relations between North Korea and key international players like the US and Japan is imperative. Despite challenges such as the North Korean nuclear issue and diplomatic strategies, this step is crucial for the international community to promote regime openness.